Horror in the Heat: 2016 Summer Box Office Predictions
John Squires
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Summer is typically known for its massive budget superhero movies and tent-pole blockbusters, and while we’ve got many of those headed our way in the coming months, this summer is uncharacteristically notable for being heavy on the horror. So heavy, in fact, that it’s about to feel like Halloween long before Halloween season arrives.
The summer forecast, friends, is calling for terror.
While we wait for this year’s horror to spill blood on the beach, we wanted to take a little time here this week to offer up some box office predictions. Of course, we have absolutely zero insider info so these are nothing more than fun guesses, and we invite you to comment at the end of the post with your own predictions. Let’s get started, shall we?
Oh and by the way. These are domestic opening weekend predictions!
The summer 2016 haunting season kicks off with the June 10th release of The Conjuring 2, director James Wan’s sequel to the 2013 hit that domestically pulled in nearly $42 million in its opening weekend. No crystal ball is required to predict that the sequel is going to be a monster hit, and when you consider the fact that spinoff Annabelle made $37 million in its opening weekend back in 2014, it’s very likely that The Conjuring 2 will out-gross The Conjuring. But by how much?
My prediction is that The Conjuring 2 will scare up $54 million this weekend, far exceeding expectations and giving it the second highest-grossing weekend EVER for an R-rated horror film – bumping 2011’s Paranormal Activity 3 out of that spot. A bold prediction? Perhaps. But if anyone can do it, it’s damn sure James Wan.
*UPDATE – THE CONJURING 2‘s ACTUAL OPENING WEEKEND GROSS: $40,406,314*
Up next, Jaume Collet-Serra’s Blake Lively-starring shark flick The Shallows swims into theaters on June 29th, and I fully expect that Columbia is going to strike a good deal of gold with this one. For starters, it’s been quite some time since a serious horror movie about sharks has taken a bite out of the big screen, and summer audiences are almost guaranteed to be hungry for it. But the real clincher here is that the film is smartly being released directly in the midst of Discovery’s annual Shark Week – the time of the year when Americans are most likely to be interested in great whites.
Similar to Krampus last year, this shark tale offers up something different at a time when audiences want something different, and it’s for all of the aforementioned reasons that I predict a $17 million opening weekend for The Shallows.
*UPDATE – THE SHALLOWS‘ ACTUAL OPENING WEEKEND GROSS: $16,800,868*
In the wake of The Shallows comes The Purge: Election Year on July 1st, the third installment in the all-crime-is-legal franchise that began in 2013. Perfectly timed for release on the long Fourth of July Weekend, the second sequel has a whole lot working in its favor, not the least of which is the fact that we’re deep into election season. Election Year looks to capitalize on all the political madness going on right now, and it’s because of how topical the new sequel is that I foresee it out-grossing Anarchy.
Not far behind the first Purge, I predict a $32 million opening weekend for Election Year.
*UPDATE – ELECTION YEAR‘s ACTUAL OPENING WEEKEND GROSS: $31,515,110*
The most talked about summer release of this year is of course Paul Feig’s Ghostbusters reboot, set to introduce a new team of paranormal experts on July 15th. Highly controversial and the target of more than its fair share of pre-release hate, Ghostbusters could go either way at the box office, and many are convinced that it’s going to be a flop for the ages. While it’s true that the trailer was the most down-voted in YouTube history, much of the hate is coming from a vocal minority, and we must keep in mind that families will be making up a large portion of the ticket sales.
Given how popular and iconic the brand is, I don’t think this one will have too much trouble at the box office. The production and marketing budgets are both sky high, but domestic and worldwide totals will likely lead to a sequel sometime down the road. As for the domestic opening weekend, let’s go with $105 million for Feig’s Ghostbusters.
*UPDATE – GHOSTBUSTERS‘ ACTUAL OPENING WEEKEND GROSS: $46,018,755*
The last major horror release coming this summer is David F. Sandberg’s James Wan-produced Lights Out, headed our way on July 22nd. The film, which began its life as a short, taps into the universal fear of the dark we all share, and given how much of a viral hit the original short was, there’s no reason to believe that it won’t be something of a hit. The fact that it’s even coming out in the heart of the summer shows that Warner Bros. and New Line have a whole lot of faith in it, and word is that they’re expecting it to be a franchise-starter.
Insidious launched a franchise with a $13 million opening weekend, and I think that Lights Out will top it with a $16 million opening. Considering the budget was just $5 million, there’s a very good chance sequels won’t be too far behind.
It looks to be a HUGE summer for horror. Whet your appetite with our video preview below!
Categorized:Editorials News
